The Rand Corporation developed the first Delphi method in the 1950s to estimate the probable effects of an atomic bomb attack on the United States. In general, the Delphi provides a practical approach to collection of data that are currently unavailable and cannot be efficiently generated by more traditional, precise analytical methods. This methodology is particularly useful for examination of issues that may be too complex for conventional analysis.

As a result, over the past 4 decades, this procedure has become a popular tool in technological forecasting, and a single definition is no longer appropriate for its numerous applications. Basically, the Delphi may be described as: a method for developing an effective group communication process for dealing with a complex problem; a technique used to elicit opinions with the goal of obtaining a group response from a panel of experts; and as being characterized by three distinguishing features. These features are: anonymity for all respondents; iteration with controlled feedback; and statistically interpretable group response.

At least part of the Delphi’s appeal is attributable to the flexibility of the methodology; the process is adaptable to a wide range of investigations. Despite this malleability, experts maintain that four elements are critical to the process. These elements include: feedback in the form of individual contributions or responses; assessment of the group opinion; opportunity for individuals to revise their original responses following the initial assessment of group opinion; and guaranteed anonymity for the individuals who participate in the process.

Researchers have noted that the Delphi approach facilitates obtaining a reliable consensus opinion from a group of experts while simultaneously minimizing the more undesirable aspects of group interaction. Negative psychological factors eliminated by the Delphi technique may be the social pressure of majority opinion, bullying and/or forceful persuasion, and a desire to stand by publicly expressed opinion. Direct debate is replaced by a carefully crafted process of continual individual interview, peppered with opinion feedback and synthesis. The cyclical questioning may continue as long as the researchers deem additional iterations to be beneficial.

However, it is important to note that the Delphi process does not necessarily generate a single answer to a single question. Rather, the Delphi method promotes a spread of opinion so that any extant uncertainties associated with a given situation can be more accurately represented. Generally, researchers seek to narrow the range of responses to the extent feasible without pressuring respondents to the point that dissenting opinions would not be permitted.

In conclusion, these aforementioned characteristics will be molded to create a custom Delphi process for the Sustainable Minerals Roundtable. Essentially, a question or questionnaire will be designed; participants will respond anonymously; replies will be interpreted and summarized; additional questionnaires will be distributed in an effort to reach consensus and/or modify earlier responses; and this process of questioning and synthesis will continue until further cycles would cease to be productive.